President Jair Bolsonaro presided over a military parade Wednesday marking 200 years since Brazil’s independence, kicking off a day of elaborate festivities that critics accuse the far-right leader of hijacking to bolster his reelection campaign.
He has said that he will accept the results only if the election is “clean and transparent.” He has suggested that it will not be.
No, I am not referring to Donald Trump but instead to Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s president who is running for reelection.
Bolsonaro is known as the Trump of the Tropics. Various world leaders such as Boris Johnson, former prime minister of the United Kingdom, and Rodrigo Duterte, former president of the Philippines, have been compared to Trump. But none are perhaps more similar to Trump than Bolsonaro.
Both Trump and Bolsonaro are populist nationalists and “authoritarian in their instincts,” as described by Bolsonaro biographer Richard Lapper. Both come from outside of the political mainstream and are anti-establishment. Both employ the use of incendiary rhetoric to rally their supporters, who view them as being “authentic” and willing to “speak their minds,” being unlike “typical politicians.” They are both polarizing figures who are loved by their acolytes, hated by their detractors.
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Similar to many of Trump’s critics, Bolsonaro’s foes, with reason, see him as a threat to democracy. “Elections won’t change anything in this country,” Bolsonaro has said. “It will only change on the day that we break out in civil war here and do the job that the military regime didn’t do, killing 30,000 people.”
Bolsonaro, who is a former military officer, looks favorably upon Brazil’s period of military dictatorship from 1964-85 during which hundreds were killed and thousands detained and exiled. The military has been heavily involved in his presidential administration. Senior officers occupy key cabinet positions. There are more than twice as many military personnel, former and active, in his government than were in his immediate predecessor’s administration.
Mirroring Trump, Bolsonaro is laying the groundwork for a “big lie” of his own in attempting to cast doubt on Brazil’s election integrity ahead of the vote this weekend (as reported on by The Economist, which recently featured Bolsonaro on the cover under the headline: The Man Who Would Be Trump). He is trailing in the polls behind former Brazilian president Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva and is expected to lose. But there are increasing concerns he may not accept defeat (if things do not fall in his favor).
Bolsonaro, like Trump, built a strong following through social media, often bypassing traditional media outlets to speak directly to his supporters. He peddles lies about his political opponents and uses the term “fake news” as a weapon against the truth. Like Trump, he dominates headlines by making inflammatory statements.
Bolsonaro took a strikingly similar approach to Trump in his response to the COVID-19 pandemic, expressing skepticism over the seriousness of the threat to public health, resisting calls for lockdowns, and endorsing unproven (and potentially harmful) cures. He referred to the virus as the little flu, held campaign events in which he appeared unmasked in crowds, and contracted the virus himself. He touted controversial drugs such as ivermectin, designed to treat heartworms, and hydroxychloroquine, an anti-malarial, which have not been shown to be effective in the prevention or treatment of COVID-19.
Bolsonaro also made statements that have fueled vaccine skepticism. “I’m not going to take the vaccine and that is all there is to it. My life is at risk? That’s my problem,” he said in December of 2020. “The Brazilian people won’t be anyone’s guinea pig,” he asserted. Because vaccine developers refused to take responsibility for potential side effects, he said, facetiously, “if you become an alligator, that’s your problem. If you become a superman, if as a woman it makes you grow a beard or if you are a man it makes you speak with a high voice, it has nothing to do with them.”
Bolsonaro’s sons similarly sowed doubts about vaccine safety. The “rush to develop a vaccine was not justified, because the disease was coming to its end,” his son Eduardo said. “When you vaccinate someone you mess with their lives. An inoculation could provoke an unexpected reaction in their immune system.”
There have been more COVID-19 deaths in the United States than anywhere else in the world. Behind the U.S., with the second most, is Brazil.
Along with their political beliefs and approaches to governing, on a personal level, Trump and Bolsonaro share similarities. Both have been married three times and have five children. Similar to Trump’s inclusion of Donald Jr., Ivanka, and his son-in-law Jared in his political operations, Bolsonaro’s three eldest sons have been active in their father’s political career.
The Economist has listed the similarities between Trump and the “Trump of the Tropics” as follows: “casts doubts on integrity of elections, peddles extravagant lies about opponents, stokes fear; tells supporters they are victims, offensive, in a way supporters mistake for sincerity, incites violence, and boasts about attractiveness of latest wife.”
The two differ, The Economist has noted, in that Bolsonaro served in the military whereas Trump did not, and Trump was vaccinated against COVID-19 whereas Bolsonaro has not been.
There are additional differences between the two.
Trump and Bolsonaro are both social conservatives who draw support from evangelical Christians. But Trump’s social conservativism seems more rooted in political calculations than deeply held convictions compared to Bolsonaro.
Trump was pro-choice before becoming a Republican politician. His appointment of Supreme Court justices who played a role in overturning Roe v Wade was consistent with his transactional approach to politics in which he rewarded and was loyal to those who were loyal to him (the evangelical base that contributed to him being elected). He reportedly favors limiting but not banning abortion and has worried that the Dobbs decision (which struck down Roe v. Wade) could have negative political consequences.
The Trump administration undermined LGBT rights in several ways. Workplace protections were rolled back, the administration supported defining gender in biological terms, and transgender troops were banned from serving in the military, among other things. But Trump also said that the legalization of same-sex marriage was settled law and that he was fine with that. Social issues in general were not a central focus for Trump during his 2016 campaign or his time in office in the way that things such as the economy and immigration were.
Bolsonaro has long been stridently anti-LGBT. He has said that he would be incapable of loving a gay son, that he would prefer for his son to be dead than gay, and that he is proud to be homophobic. Such views place him closer to those on the far-right elsewhere, such as those in Poland’s ruling conservative Law and Justice (PiS) Party, than to Trump.
Opposition to illegal immigration has been less of a focus for Bolsonaro than it has been for Trump and right-wing populist parties in Europe. Immigration, in general, is not as disruptive of an issue in Brazil as it is in the United States due to migration from Mexico, or in Europe due to migration from the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa.
Bolsonaro does not mirror Trump in every way. Nonetheless, the similarities, in which there are quite a few, are striking.
Bolsonaro has been clear in his support of Trump and effusive in his praise. Trump is his idol he has said. Trump, for his part, has said that Bolsonaro has done a “very outstanding job” as president. Bolsonaro held out on recognizing Trump’s election loss longer than every world leader other than Kim Jong-un. His loyalty to Trump has complicated his relationship with current president Joe Biden.
The stakes are high in Brazil’s election. The first round vote is on Sunday. If no candidate wins a majority, the contest will go to a runoff scheduled for Oct. 30 between the top two candidates.
The odds are against Bolsonaro. He is trailing in the polls by a significant margin. If things do not change he may soon share another similarity with Trump, that of being a one-term president in denial.
David Dreyer is the director of general education and a political science professor at Lenoir-Rhyne University.
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